Future land use prediction and optimization strategy of Zhejiang Greater Bay Area coupled with ecological security multi-scenario pattern.

The land use changes driven by human activities press a incredible menace to zonal ecological security. As the most active urban cluster, the uncontrolled expansion of cities in the bay area exerts enormous pressure on the ecosystem. Therefore, from the perspective of ecological conservation, exploring future land use optimization patterns and spatial structure is extremely essential for the long-term thriving of the bay area. On this basis, this research integrated the System Dynamics model (SD) as the quantity forecast model and the PLUS model as the spatial emulation model and established the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) Simulation Framework by setting the constraints of Ecological Security Multi-Scenario Patterns (ESMP). By setting four scenarios in future, that is, Business As Usual (BAU), Priority of Ecological Protection (PEP), Balanced Development Scenario (BD), and Priority of Urban development (PUD), this research predicts LUCC in the Zhejiang Greater Bay Area (ZGBA) in 2035 and explored land use optimization patterns. The results indicate that by 2035, under the scenarios of BAU, BD, and PUD, the construction land will observably grow by 38.86%, 19.63%, and 83.90%, respectively, distributed mainly around the Hangzhou Bay Area, Taizhou Bay Area, and Wenzhou Bay Area, primarily achieved by sacrificing ecologically sensitive lands such as forests to achieve regional high economic growth. Under PEP, the growth of construction land retards, and forest experiences net growth (11.27%), with better landscape connectivity and more cohesive patches compared to other scenarios. Combining regional planning and analysis at the city scale, Hangzhou Bay area (Hangzhou, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Ningbo) can adopt the BD development scenario, while Zhoushan, Taizhou, Wenzhou and Fuyang County of Hangzhou can adopt the PEP development scenario. This research furnishes a novel mechanism for optimizing land use pattern in ecological security perspective and offers scientific guidance for land resource management and spatial planning in ZGBA.

Influences of Climate Change and Land Use Change on the Habitat Suitability of Bharal in the Sanjiangyuan District, China.

One of the biggest dangers to the degradation of biodiversity worldwide is climate change. Its oscillations in the future could result in potential alterations to species populations and habitat structure. With Sanjiangyuan District as the study site, an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) was utilized to investigate the number and location of the bharal (Pseudois nayaur). The Maximum Entropy model and the Minimum Cumulative Resistance model (MaxEnt-MCR) were coupled to simulate the distribution of wildlife. On this basis, the future geographical distribution of bharal under different climate scenarios was simulated, and the ecological corridor and habitat centroid of bharal were revealed. The results showed that the suitable area of the bharal habitat was 4669 km2, which was mainly concentrated in the Maduo, Qumalai, and Gonghe counties. The potential distribution of the species under different future climate scenarios had a decreasing trend. Under the SSP-245 scenario, the habitat area of bharal in 2030 and 2050 decreased by 25.68 and 44.61% compared with the present situation and cumulatively decreased by 1199 and 2083 km2, respectively. Under the SSP-585 scenario, the habitat area of bharal in 2030 and 2050 decreased by 27.5 and 48.44%, with a total reduction of 1284 and 2262 km2, respectively. Furthermore, a complete loss of habitat was predicted in Gonghe County by 2050. In addition, it was observed that the landscape structure in Sanjiangyuan District would be more fragmented and complex. The continued climate change will seriously affect the habitat distribution of this species. Therefore, preventive measures, such as protecting habitat areas and establishing ecological corridors for bharal, should be implemented in the Sanjiangyuan District. Such measures should not focus solely on the potential degradation but should also be extended to include potential distribution areas for future migration.